by Vitaliy Katsenelson
I wrote an article in February 2007 in the Rocky Mountain News called – “You are not as smart as you think” (see second article) that article was written to address overconfidence that we get in bull markets. Today I’ve slightly rewritten the same article to address underconfidence of bear markets.
You are not as dumb as you think – or – Psychotherapy for Bear Markets
Lately I’ve been getting this nagging feeling that everything I touch turns to dirt. Every time I buy a stock that is already down a lot, the one that my analysis leads me to believe is cheaper than dirt, it declines more. Did I completely lose my ability to value stocks? Did I start ignoring Will Rogers’ advice? Buy stocks that go up, and if they don’t go up, don’t buy them.
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